美联储褐皮书：经济和就业近乎停滞，物价全面上涨

Economic Activity and Employment - The Federal Reserve's recent report indicates that economic activity and employment in the U.S. have remained largely unchanged in recent weeks, with consumer spending either flat or declining [1][2] - The report highlights that wage growth for many households is not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to concerns about inflation and employment [1][2] Inflation and Price Changes - All 12 Federal Reserve districts reported price increases, with 10 districts noting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 districts experiencing "strong input cost growth" [1][2] - Tariffs have significantly impacted input prices, with businesses raising product prices to offset rising costs [1][2] Employment Trends - Eleven districts reported little to no change in overall employment levels, with one district indicating a slight decline [2] - A reduction in immigrant labor has been noted in several districts, particularly affecting the construction industry [2] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - There is increasing pressure for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [3] - Recent labor market data shows weak signals, with average monthly job additions since May being only 35,000 [3] Political Influence on Federal Reserve - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, who supports Trump's views on interest rates and advocates for increased presidential control over the Fed [4] - Trump's attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook have raised concerns about the political independence of the Federal Reserve, which is deemed crucial for effective inflation control [4][5]