“寒武纪”大爆发，靠什么持续神话

Core Viewpoint - The rise of Cambricon Technologies (寒武纪-U) is seen as a significant event in the Chinese capital market, symbolizing the shift from traditional consumption to technology-driven innovation in the economy [1][12]. Group 1: Company Performance - Cambricon has experienced continuous losses for eight years, with cumulative losses reaching approximately 5.5 billion yuan from 2017 to 2024 [3][4]. - The company faced a significant revenue decline in the first half of 2024, with Q1 and Q2 revenues of 25.67 million yuan and 64.77 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 65.91% and 43.42% respectively [3]. - A turning point occurred in Q4 2024 when Cambricon achieved a quarterly profit of 282 million yuan, which expanded to 355 million yuan in Q1 2025 [5][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for AI chips surged due to the application of large models, with Cambricon's Shiyuan 590 chip utilizing 7nm technology, comparable to NVIDIA's A10 chip [5]. - Cambricon's AI chips are ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), tailored for specific AI needs, and can be used in cloud servers, edge computing devices, and terminal devices [5]. - The company has been recognized as the "first stock of AI chips" in China, attracting significant investment and being included in multiple indices such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 300 [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The domestic AI chip market is experiencing rapid growth, with local AI chip shipments exceeding 820,000 units in 2024, and the domestic share expected to rise to 40% by the end of the year [13]. - The Chinese government is emphasizing the importance of domestic AI chip production and has initiated policies to support technological innovation and the development of a robust AI ecosystem [12][14]. - The merger of domestic companies like Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is seen as a strategic move to enhance the resilience of the domestic supply chain in the face of global competition [12]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Cambricon's stock price has seen significant fluctuations, at one point surpassing that of Kweichow Moutai, indicating a market driven more by sentiment than fundamentals [11]. - Analysts have raised concerns about the sustainability of Cambricon's high valuation, given its current revenue and profit levels, which may not justify a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan [10][11]. - Investment firms, including Goldman Sachs, have set a target price of 1,835 yuan for Cambricon, suggesting a potential increase of approximately 31% from its recent closing price of 1,405 yuan [10].