方正证券：白酒作为优质顺周期资产 估值中枢仍存在修复空间

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, has experienced a slowdown since Q2 due to macroeconomic impacts and weak terminal demand, leading to short-term performance pressure on liquor companies and a bottoming phase in fundamentals [1] Industry Summary - The performance of the baijiu sector is differentiated by price segments: high-end baijiu > sub-high-end baijiu > regional liquor companies, with sub-high-end baijiu having undergone longer adjustments previously [1] - High-end baijiu brands maintain relative resilience through strong brand power and channel control, with leading companies like Moutai stabilizing their high-end market base through inventory control and channel optimization [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the sector is 19.7X, which is above the five-year percentile of 14.3%, indicating some recovery but still at historical lows [1] Future Outlook - With multiple policy catalysts, a bottom has formed in the sector, and there is potential for valuation recovery as the overall economic outlook improves [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day for potential improvements in terminal demand, as well as the pace at which policy improvements translate into demand recovery [1]