方正证券：美股当下估值和集中度重新回偏高区间 短期继续上涨空间或相对有限

Core Insights - Since July, the market's expectations for the annual EPS growth of US stocks have been significantly revised upward due to the easing of tariff policy risks and the relative resilience of the US economy [1] - The US economy may trend towards moderate decline in the second half of the year, which could exert some pressure on US stock earnings [1] - Despite the ongoing AI boom and relatively low recession risks in the US economy, US stock earnings still require continued observation [1] Market Dynamics - The concentration of the US stock market has reached a new high, largely reflecting the sustained high growth of technology stocks represented by AI, but this also increases market vulnerability [1] - Current valuations and concentration levels of US stocks have returned to a relatively high range, suggesting limited short-term upside potential [1] - The probability of sector rotation is increasing, while the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [1]