Core Insights - The smartphone market is expected to see increased penetration of AI phones in the mid-range segment due to streamlined edge models and upgraded chip computing power, with the first foldable phone anticipated in 2026 to stimulate demand in the foldable market [1] - The AR market is transitioning from niche products to mainstream computing terminals, with smart glasses projected to become the next major computing device after smartphones, driving rapid growth in related components [1] - Global cloud providers are maintaining high investments in AI, with Chinese internet companies also increasing their investments, leading to a surge in GPU demand and subsequently boosting the demand for PCBs and passive components [1] Industry Data Tracking - In Q2 2025, global smartphone shipments reached 295 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with Samsung leading the market, followed by Apple, Xiaomi, vivo, and Transsion; the low-end Android market is under pressure, affecting overall market growth [1] - The Chinese smartphone market has underperformed expectations, primarily due to subsidies failing to stimulate demand; IDC has revised the global smartphone shipment growth rate for 2025 from 0.6% to 1.0% [1] - The global smartwatch market has shown signs of recovery after five consecutive quarters of decline, with Chinese brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Little Genius playing a significant role in this recovery [1] - In Q2 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $175.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, driven by demand from the US and China, with the top five NAND Flash manufacturers seeing a 22% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase [1] - SMIC, a leading domestic wafer foundry, added 18,000 pieces of capacity (equivalent to 8-inch wafers) in Q2, reaching a total capacity of 991,300 pieces per month by the end of Q2, with a utilization rate of 92.5%, up 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Sector Tracking - In August, the semiconductor industry index rose by 27.22%, the electronics industry index increased by 24.79%, and the CSI 300 index grew by 10.33% [2] - Year-to-date, the semiconductor industry index has increased by 36.66%, the electronics industry index by 38.34%, and the CSI 300 index by 14.28% [2] - In August, the digital chip design sector surged by 39.86%, the analog chip design sector rose by 16.46%, and the integrated circuit packaging and testing sector increased by 16.99% [2] - Year-to-date, the digital chip design sector has grown by 56.50%, the analog chip design sector by 25.31%, and the integrated circuit packaging and testing sector by 8.68% [2]
中国银河证券:AI需求持续高景气 AR、折叠机有望高增