美联储“褐皮书”：关税致美国物价普遍上涨，招聘放缓

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates that most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little change in economic activity, with only four districts noting moderate growth [1] - Consumer spending remained flat or declined across most districts, with many households' incomes not keeping pace with rising prices [1] - Nearly all districts reported price increases related to tariffs, with significant impacts on input costs [1] Employment Trends - Overall employment levels showed little change across 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline [2] - Seven districts reported that businesses were reluctant to hire due to weak demand and economic uncertainty, while two districts noted an increase in layoffs [2] - The reduction in immigrant labor, particularly affecting the construction industry, was highlighted as a significant factor impacting employment [2] Inflation and Price Expectations - Most regions described current price increases as "moderate to modest," but many businesses expect prices to continue rising in the coming months, with three districts anticipating further increases [1] - The report emphasized that businesses are cautious about raising prices due to concerns over potential loss of customers [1] Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be influenced by the economic conditions outlined in the "Beige Book" [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is projected at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [4]