周大生(002867)2025年半年报点评：产品结构持续优化 毛利率改善支撑盈利韧性

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a continuous optimization of its product structure, leading to a significant improvement in gross margin and enhanced profitability in online channels, indicating promising future development [1] Investment Highlights - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" due to the ongoing product structure optimization and gross margin improvement. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is set at 1.02, 1.13, and 1.24 yuan respectively. Considering the high gold weight ratio and the upward trend in gold prices, the company faces some sales pressure, leading to a target price adjustment to 17.38 yuan from the previous 15.15 yuan, based on a 16.97x PE valuation for 2025 [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.597 billion yuan, down 43.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 594 million yuan, down 1.27%. The decline is primarily due to high gold prices suppressing gold consumption and weak replenishment demand from downstream franchise clients [2] Product Structure and Online Channel Performance - The revenue from gold products was 3.415 billion yuan, down 50.94%, accounting for 74.30% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 16.77%, up 6.98 percentage points, indicating improved cost control. Revenue from diamond-set jewelry was 286 million yuan, down 23.08%, with a gross margin of 30.40%, up 4.38 percentage points, reflecting higher product added value. Other jewelry revenue was 320 million yuan, up 11.11%, with a gross margin of 52.87%, down 4.17 percentage points, showing strong profitability in non-gold products [3] - Online revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.145 billion yuan, down 3.48%, with a net profit of 114 million yuan, up 24.61%, demonstrating good growth momentum. Major platforms include Tmall (540 million yuan), JD (249 million yuan), and Douyin (145 million yuan) [3] Store Management and Profitability - The company is strengthening self-operated store management, leading to an increase in average single-store gross profit to 786,700 yuan, up 6.04%. However, the average single-store gross profit for franchise clients decreased to 138,800 yuan, down 16.48%, due to low replenishment willingness amid high gold prices and declining consumer sentiment. As of the end of the reporting period, the company had 4,718 brand terminal stores, with 4,311 franchise stores (a decrease of 344) and 407 self-operated stores (an increase of 54), resulting in a net decrease of 290 stores since the beginning of the reporting period [4] - The operating costs for the first half of 2025 decreased by 52.14%, benefiting from product structure optimization and pricing advantages due to rising gold prices, leading to a significant gross margin increase to 30.34%, up 11.96 percentage points, which serves as an important buffer against revenue decline [4]