深度*公司*3SBIO INC(1530.HK)：FLATTISH 1H25 MISSED; PFIZER’S TRIAL INITIATION OF 707 COULD BE KEY CATALYST

Core Viewpoint - 1H25 results were disappointing with a revenue decline of 0.8% YoY to RMB4.36 billion, while adjusted net profits to shareholders increased by 2.1% YoY to RMB1.36 billion, missing expectations [1][2] Revenue Performance - Revenue from legacy products TPIAO and EPO, which accounted for 54% and 16% of total revenue respectively, declined by 4% YoY and 12% YoY due to high base effects, stricter medical insurance controls, increased competition, and negative impacts from province-level VBP [2][3] - Revenue from Sunshine Guojian increased by 8% YoY, driven by its CDMO business, while sales from the alopecia area increased by 24% YoY, attributed to new SKUs and effective digital promotions [3] Profitability - Adjusted net profits to shareholders rose by 2.1% YoY to RMB1.36 billion, although management did not update guidance post-results, indicating challenges in meeting previous double-digit growth expectations [3] Future Developments - The company is closely monitoring Pfizer's development plan for 707, with a focus on its Phase II data in colorectal cancer to be presented at the 2025 ESMO conference [1][3] - Pfizer's near-term objectives include initiating global Phase III development for 707 in various cancers and exploring its potential in combination with Pfizer's ADC therapies [3] Pipeline Updates - The company anticipates new product approvals between 2026-28, including candidates for psoriasis, acute gouty arthritis, adult atopic dermatitis, and asthma, with several in late-stage trials [3] Sales Forecast Adjustments - Post-results, the company revised its 2025-27 sales forecasts, decreasing estimates for legacy products while increasing projections for Mandi due to strong sales momentum [3] - The target price was raised to HK$38.20 based on updated sales forecasts and a revised WACC from 10.6% to 9.7% [3]