Ge Long Hui·2025-09-04 03:15Core Viewpoint - NIO's revenue and vehicle sales are showing significant recovery in Q2 2025, driven by new model launches and improved product mix, with optimistic guidance for Q3 and Q4 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, NIO's revenue reached approximately 19.01 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9%, with automotive revenue around 16.3 billion RMB [1] - The average selling price per vehicle increased to approximately 239,000 RMB, slightly above market expectations, primarily due to new model launches [1] - Q2 2025 gross margin was 10.0%, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with automotive gross margin at 10.3%, remaining stable compared to Q1 2025 [1] - NIO reported a net loss of 4.99 billion RMB in Q2 2025, an 11% year-on-year increase but a narrowing quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Sales Guidance and Projections - The company is optimistic about Q3 2025, expecting deliveries between 87,000 and 91,000 vehicles, with revenue projected at 21.8 to 22.9 billion RMB, marking a historical high [1] - For Q4 2025, NIO aims for combined monthly sales of approximately 50,000 vehicles, with a projected gross margin increase to 17%–18% [1] - The order volume for the ES8 is anticipated to be around 40,000 to 50,000 units, with significant deliveries of the L90 and ES8 expected in Q4 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Adjustments - NIO's 2025 sales forecast has been raised from 300,000 to 340,000 vehicles, with revenue expectations increased by 17.5% to 99.5 billion RMB, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 [2] - The focus is on the sustainability of marginal improvements and cost reduction effectiveness, as well as the potential for profitability in Q4 2025 [2] - The target price for NIO has been adjusted to 62.7 HKD / 8.0 USD, corresponding to a 2025 price-to-sales ratio of 1.2 times, maintaining a buy rating [2]