Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-04 03:59Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been rising continuously, leading to domestic gold jewelry prices reaching historical highs [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 3, COMEX gold futures closed at $3619.7 per ounce, marking seven consecutive days of increase. On September 4, the price slightly decreased to $3602.5 per ounce, down by 0.91% [4] - Citic Securities reports that long-term factors affecting gold prices remain unchanged, with a balance of bullish and bearish influences in the short term [4][6] Group 2: Bullish Factors - Bullish influences include the evident stagflation pressure on the U.S. economy due to Trump's tariff policies, ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, and clearer market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] - Analysts from Swiss Bank have raised their mid-2026 gold price target to $3700 per ounce, while U.S. Bank analysts predict a peak of $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [6] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Bearish influences include a cooling expectation regarding the strength of Trump's tariff policies since late April, a slowdown in global central bank gold purchases (with a net purchase of approximately 166 tons in Q2, showing a year-on-year decline), and a recovery in risk appetite in the Chinese capital market, which has limited capital inflow into the domestic gold market [5] Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citic Securities predicts that under a neutral assumption, gold prices may exceed $3730 per ounce by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley's commodity strategist expects gold prices to reach $4250 per ounce by the end of 2026, contingent on a resurgence of ETF inflows to support prices [6]