Core Insights - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain strong in the short term due to anticipated production cuts after the October hydropower season and expectations regarding silicon material storage policies [1][2] - Despite structural oversupply in the wafer market, upstream cost pressures and supply-demand balance for certain sizes are providing support for wafer prices, which are expected to have upward momentum [1][3] - The price trend for photovoltaic modules is optimistic, with expectations of stability and gradual increases supported by costs, policies, and demand, although the likelihood of price reductions is low [1][6] Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon continues to increase, with monthly output expected to reach around 130,000 tons, an increase of approximately 8,000 tons from August [2] - Market transactions remain cautious, with lower purchasing intentions from downstream customers, leading to a cautious market sentiment [2] - Driven by national "anti-involution" policies, polysilicon prices have not declined with the supply-demand fundamentals, instead showing a tendency to rise [2] Wafer - Current wafer inventory levels are stable, but there are significant structural issues, particularly with 210RN wafers experiencing oversupply while 183N and 210N sizes maintain a healthier balance [3] - The demand for 183N and 210N wafers is relatively balanced, supporting price increases, while the 210RN size faces weak demand [3] - The rising upstream silicon prices are providing solid cost support for wafers, leading to expected price increases for 183N and 210N sizes [3] Battery Cells - The inventory levels for battery cells are relatively healthy, but there is a clear structural divergence in supply and demand [4] - The demand for 210N high-efficiency cells is showing positive trends, providing strong support for prices [4] - Battery prices are expected to follow the upward trend of silicon wafer prices, indicating a challenging market environment [4][5] Photovoltaic Modules - The continuous rise in upstream prices is pushing up production costs for downstream modules, yet terminal demand remains weak [6] - Despite manufacturers raising quotes to above 0.7 RMB per watt, actual transaction prices are around 0.68 RMB per watt, indicating a struggle to pass on cost increases [6] - The production forecast for September indicates a slight increase, with no significant decline in demand, further supporting price stability [6]
TrendForce集邦咨询：头部企业“抱团”涨价 光伏产业链价格易涨难跌
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-04 05:52