美国就业市场再添危险信号

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. job market is cooling down, with job vacancies dropping significantly, which may influence future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][5] - As of July 31, job vacancies decreased by 176,000 to 7.181 million, marking the lowest level since September of the previous year and the second-lowest since the pandemic began in 2020 [3] - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, while layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, indicating a rising trend in layoffs [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer spending is expected to be impacted by changes in the job market, with personal consumption expenditure growth slowing from 1.6% in Q2 to an anticipated 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in the last quarter of the year [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with expectations of job additions falling below 100,000, and the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3% [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at possible interest rate cuts, acknowledging rising risks in the labor market, while inflation remains a concern [5][6] Group 3 - The St. Louis Fed President noted that the current policy rate is consistent with a fully employed labor market, but acknowledged downward risks to employment [6] - Atlanta Fed President stated that only one rate cut may be needed in 2025, emphasizing that the policy remains only slightly restrictive [6] - The balance of risks regarding inflation and employment will guide future monetary policy decisions, with a focus on achieving both maximum employment and price stability [6]