OEXN：美元走软与利率前景

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is experiencing increased volatility due to signs of weakness in the US labor market, leading investors to bet more heavily on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Recent data indicates that US job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, with overall signs of cooling in the employment market, which is a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to nearly 97%, up from 89% a week prior, with expectations of a cumulative rate cut of 139 basis points by the end of next year [1] Group 2 - The global bond market's volatility adds uncertainty to foreign exchange trends, with rising long-term government bond yields reflecting investor concerns about the fiscal health of major economies [5] - Despite weak employment data and dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials, US Treasury yields have retreated, with the 30-year Treasury yield dropping from a one-and-a-half-month high of 5% to 4.891% [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be a key focus, as further confirmation of labor market slowdown could increase the likelihood of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting the dollar and potentially boosting the appeal of gold and other safe-haven assets [5]