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古茗中期业绩暴增121% 下沉市场与咖啡品类成增长双引擎

Core Viewpoint - Guming Holdings Limited (01364.HK) reported strong financial results for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth exceeding market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2% [1]. - Shareholder profit surged to 1.625 billion yuan, up 121.51% compared to the previous year, surpassing the total net profit for 2024 [1]. - Adjusted net profit was 1.086 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% increase from 762 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first half of 2025 was 14.094 billion yuan, a 34.4% year-on-year growth [2]. - The average daily GMV per store increased from 6,200 yuan to 7,600 yuan, marking a 22.6% rise [2]. - Cash and bank balances rose significantly from 1.9353 billion yuan at the end of the previous year to 4.2693 billion yuan [2]. Growth Drivers - The company's growth was driven by rapid store expansion and improved operational efficiency [3]. - A net increase of 1,265 stores was achieved in the first half of 2025, with a total of 11,179 stores across over 200 cities in China [3]. - The proportion of stores in lower-tier cities reached 80.9%, with 43% located in townships, indicating a strong presence in underdeveloped markets [3]. - The expansion of the coffee product line contributed significantly to revenue growth, with over 8,000 stores equipped with coffee machines and 16 new coffee products launched [3][4]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company operates 22 warehouses with a total area of approximately 230,000 square meters and a cold storage capacity exceeding 61,000 cubic meters [4]. - Guming owns and operates 362 delivery vehicles, enabling 98% of stores to receive deliveries within two days, enhancing product quality and operational efficiency [4]. Future Outlook - Based on strong performance, the company has raised its annual store expansion target from 2,100 to 2,500 stores [5]. - Analysts project adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.285 billion, 2.699 billion, and 3.259 billion yuan, with growth rates of 48%, 18%, and 21% respectively [5]. - The company plans to explore overseas market opportunities while focusing on domestic supply chain optimization and store network expansion [6]. - Guming's extensive store network serves as a competitive advantage, particularly in lower-tier cities, where significant market potential remains [6].