21对话｜瑞银颜湄之：H股银行股息率更有优势

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a correction, but recent policies such as "anti-involution" and consumer loan interest subsidies are seen as beneficial for banks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Wind banking index shows a decline of approximately 0.85% in July and 2.17% in August, attributed to style switching and profit-taking [1]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is not significant compared to the 2015 stock market surge, with current data indicating a low level of this trend [2][4]. - Large banks maintain reasonable loan-to-deposit ratios, with one state-owned bank at about 70% and another at 90%, indicating no significant deposit shortages [4]. Group 2: Consumer Loans and Policies - Recent policies, including interest subsidies for consumer loans, are expected to have a marginal impact on specific income groups, particularly middle-income individuals [8]. - The impact of these policies on asset quality is being monitored, with regulations preventing funds from flowing into the stock and real estate markets [8]. Group 3: H-Shares vs A-Shares - H-share banks are favored over A-share banks due to higher dividend yields, with some large banks potentially offering yields above 5.5% post-capital injection [5][7]. - The average expected dividend yield for H-share banks is projected to be around 4.9% by 2025, with a sustainable outlook for the next five years [7]. Group 4: Revenue and Growth Outlook - State-owned banks reported positive revenue growth in the first half of the year, driven by increased intermediary business income and bond investment returns [7]. - The long-term forecast suggests that banks will resume revenue growth by 2026, with net interest margins expected to stabilize and fee income recovering [7]. Group 5: Stability and Future Conditions - The recent correction in bank stocks is viewed as a normal market fluctuation, with key conditions for stabilization including policy signals, economic expectations, and the upcoming dividend distribution period [9].