Macroeconomic and Industry News - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [1] - Price increases were reported across all districts, with 10 districts noting "moderate or subdued" inflation and two districts experiencing "strong input price growth" [1] - Employment levels remained stable or showed no net change in 11 districts, while one district reported a slight decline [1] Commodity Analysis - The main copper futures contract closed at 80,260 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.10% and a trading volume of 27,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,530 lots to 190,600 lots [2] - The processing fee for imported copper ore recorded at -41.25 USD/dry ton, indicating a significant drop and potential losses for smelters, necessitating clarity on whether smelting output has increased or if there is a tightening at the mining end [2] - Codelco's reduction in annual production guidance has led to expectations of decreased mineral output, although current inventory levels suggest otherwise, indicating a higher likelihood of reduced output from the mining side [2] - In terms of demand, only copper rod production remains at historically high levels, while other sectors like copper pipes, cables, and copper plates are declining [2] - Overall market logic is shifting towards macro trading, with rising inflation expectations and cooling employment forecasts potentially increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could benefit the non-ferrous sector [2] Inventory and Structure - Domestic copper social inventory has continued to decline slightly, remaining above last year's levels but still lower compared to historical averages for this time of year [3] - Total inventory across major exchanges has increased, indicating weak demand fundamentals and aligning with the seasonal consumption slowdown [2] Investment Recommendations - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggests stagnant economic activity but rising prices, which, combined with the recent ruling on U.S. tariffs, may increase the likelihood of the government failing in its appeal to the Supreme Court [4] - The supply side still has speculative support due to tight mining conditions and significantly negative processing fees [4] - A strategy of light long positions is recommended [4]
美关税被裁定违法的可能性上升!铜价炒作风再起?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-04 07:06