BBMarkets：美元即将转弱？美联储降息预期下，欧元英镑机会来了

Group 1 - The recent volatility of the US dollar indicates a market adjustment to the Federal Reserve's future policy expectations, with signals suggesting a potential interest rate cut cycle may begin soon [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for starting interest rate cuts this month, with a gradual adjustment in the following months, as the current benchmark rate exceeds the neutral rate, indicating a restrictive monetary policy [1] - Waller suggests that the extent and pace of rate cuts could range between 100 to 150 basis points, depending on future inflation and employment data, which may put pressure on the dollar while allowing other currencies to strengthen [1] Group 2 - In the European market, recent economic data shows a mixed picture, with Germany's August services PMI falling to 49.3, indicating weakness in the services sector and increased economic growth pressure [3] - The Eurozone composite PMI reached a 12-month high of 51.0, but the recovery is uneven, primarily supported by manufacturing and certain member states, while inflationary pressures from rising input costs and output prices pose challenges for the European Central Bank [3] - The US dollar index slightly declined to around 98.20, influenced by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and profit-taking, with short-term resistance at 98.70 and support around 97.70 [3] Group 3 - The British pound also benefited from the dollar's weakness, trading around 1.3440, supported by short covering and positive economic data from the UK [4] - Short-term focus for the pound includes resistance at 1.3550 and support at 1.3350, with potential trading opportunities for the euro and pound in the context of a weakening dollar [4] - Upcoming economic data releases, including Eurozone retail sales and US ADP employment figures, are crucial as they will directly impact market expectations regarding economic trends and monetary policy, further influencing currency fluctuations [4] Group 4 - The current forex market exhibits a cautiously optimistic state, with the dollar under pressure from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the euro and pound show active performance supported by technical and fundamental factors [5] - Despite the opportunities for the euro and pound in the short term, uncertainties remain, necessitating close monitoring of data releases and policy developments to effectively navigate short-term volatility [5] - Understanding the rhythm and acting in accordance with market trends is key for forex market investments at this time [5]