日本资金“回流潮”正在上演! 一场席卷西方金融市场的“抛售风暴”蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The rising trajectory of Japanese government bond yields is attracting domestic investors to shift their funds back to Japan, potentially leading to downward pressure on international currency exchange rates and Western stock markets [1][3]. Group 1: Japanese Government Bonds - Japanese investors are expected to find government bond yields attractive enough to invest domestically, moving away from U.S. Treasuries [3][4]. - The report indicates that by the end of next year, Japanese investors could achieve excess returns of approximately 30 to 120 basis points depending on the segment of the yield curve they choose to invest in [3][6]. - The shift in investment focus is anticipated to occur around 2026, marking a significant change in investor behavior [3][6]. Group 2: Currency and Global Markets - The anticipated increase in Japanese government bond yields could lead to a stronger yen and a weaker dollar, impacting global capital flows and potentially causing a re-evaluation of asset valuations in U.S. Treasuries and equities [5][7]. - If Japanese life insurance companies increase their hedge ratio from 45% to 60%, it could result in approximately $173 billion flowing from dollars to yen, supporting the yen's appreciation [5][6]. - The shift in currency dynamics and the potential for rising yields in Japan may lead to a tightening of global financial market liquidity [7]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - RBC economists predict that by the end of next year, Japan's overnight interest rate will rise by about 50 basis points, while U.S. benchmark borrowing costs will decrease by approximately 130 basis points [4]. - The transition from ultra-loose monetary policy to tightening by the Bank of Japan has led to increased focus on the pricing of Japanese government bonds, with market-driven supply and demand becoming more influential [6]. - The expected changes in interest rates and currency hedging costs are critical variables for the re-pricing of global interest rates, exchange rates, and stock-bond market dynamics in 2025-2026 [6].