凌晨 美联储 重大发布

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates price increases across all regions, with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation and little net change in overall employment levels [1][2][3] - The frequency of mentions regarding inflation in the Beige Book is near a four-year low, while mentions of "slowdown" have decreased significantly, suggesting that inflation and economic slowdown are no longer primary concerns [2][3] Economic Conditions - The Beige Book reports that consumer spending is flat or declining as many households' wages have not kept pace with rising prices [2] - All districts noted price increases related to tariffs, with significant impacts on input prices reported by contacts in insurance, utilities, and technology sectors [2] Labor Market - Eleven districts described overall employment levels as having little net change, with one district reporting a slight decline; half of the regions noted a decrease in immigrant workers, particularly in construction [3] - The latest JOLTS report shows job vacancies at 7.181 million, the lowest level in ten months, indicating a gradual weakening in labor demand amid increasing policy uncertainty [3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have intensified, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, and a likelihood of cumulative cuts between 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [3][4] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist suggests that the Fed is open to rate cuts, but the extent will depend on whether labor market weakness poses a greater risk than rising inflation [3] Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated the need to initiate rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, with potential for multiple cuts in the next 3-6 months [4][5] - Waller also mentioned that inflation may align closer to the Fed's target in 6-7 months as tariff impacts diminish, emphasizing the need to address potential rapid declines in the labor market [5][6] - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem highlighted increasing downside risks in the labor market and anticipated that tariffs would affect the economy for the next 2-3 quarters before their impact on inflation subsides [6]