80000关口得而复失 国内铜社库继续回升【9月4日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper market showed stability around the 80,000 yuan mark but experienced a decline of 0.51% at the close, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and rising precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shanghai copper prices initially rose above 80,000 yuan due to strong macroeconomic sentiment and the performance of precious metals, but later retreated as domestic inventories increased and futures market sentiment weakened [1] - The market's focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence macroeconomic sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - LME copper inventory has remained relatively stable without significant accumulation, while SMM data indicated a 0.85 million ton increase in national copper inventory as of September 4 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures suggests that the macroeconomic factors driving metal prices remain positive, and under the current conditions, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels, with potential for further strength [1] - A potential downside risk is the return of logistics, although the CL price spread remains positive, indicating a slower realization of returns [1]