蓝莓外汇：伦铜冲击一万美元关口后回落，后市将如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The London copper market is experiencing significant volatility, currently fluctuating around the psychological level of $10,000 per ton, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 13.6% and over 23% since April's low [1][3] Market Sentiment - The copper price is in a phase of tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. On the bullish side, a weaker dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts make copper more attractive for buyers holding other currencies, potentially supporting demand. Additionally, a decline in China's refined copper production, influenced by scrap supply issues, tax policies, and factory maintenance, provides further price support. China's resilient demand, driven by strong service sector activity and increasing manufacturing orders, also underpins copper prices [3][4] - On the bearish side, weak overseas demand is a critical concern, with the US manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory, indicating sluggish manufacturing activity and poor overseas demand for copper. Furthermore, significant increases in copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) suggest that the spot market demand has not fully absorbed supply, leading to ongoing inventory pressure. Global economic uncertainties, such as concerns over US tariff policies, also dampen market sentiment [3][4] Institutional and Market Analysis - In the short term, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong but volatile trend due to tight supply conditions and weak US economic data, which may reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, indirectly boosting copper prices. In the medium to long term, the demand outlook for copper remains positive, particularly in emerging industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, where copper applications are growing. However, insufficient global copper mining investment may limit long-term supply, supporting a bullish price trend [4][5] - If overseas inventories remain high and global demand does not improve, especially with continued weakness in the US and European markets, the potential for significant copper price increases may be limited. Market participants are closely monitoring key economic data, such as US non-farm payrolls, for insights into policy direction [4][5] Overall Market Condition - The London copper market is currently experiencing a phase of short-term strength but notable volatility, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors leading to cautious sentiment among market participants. The overall upward trend in copper prices this year is evident, but recent high-level fluctuations reflect the interplay of various market sentiments. Tight supply and resilient Chinese demand support prices, while weak overseas demand and high inventories pose constraints. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain strong but with limited upward momentum, while medium-term structural support exists, albeit with caution regarding global economic uncertainties and inventory pressures [5]