4万亿关税收入能否抵消减税？美债交易员重估特朗普风险

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's tariff revenue is seen as a crucial support for U.S. public finances, but recent judicial challenges have raised concerns about its sustainability [1][2] - The U.S. government is set to impose "reciprocal tariffs" starting April 2, initially perceived as a potential economic shock, but later viewed as a source of revenue to offset the fiscal gap from tax cuts [1][2] - A recent court ruling deemed most of Trump's global tariff policies illegal, shaking market confidence and raising doubts about the reliability of tariff revenue [1][2] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) previously estimated that Trump's tariff policy would generate $4 trillion in revenue over the next decade, which could help cover the $4.1 trillion increase in government borrowing due to tax cuts [2] - Analysts warn that the potential loss of tariff revenue could lead to increased bond issuance by the Treasury to cover deficits, resulting in market oversupply and downward pressure on bond prices [1][2] - The current risk in the bond market is asymmetric, with tax cuts remaining intact while tariff revenues may vanish due to judicial decisions [2] Group 3 - Even if tariff revenue continues, concerns remain about the U.S. government's large borrowing scale, with tariffs viewed as a temporary solution [3] - If tariffs are "paused," it would deprive the U.S. of a revenue source, but the larger issue is the government's substantial spending [4] - Without tariff revenue, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. could exceed post-World War II peaks by 2029, according to CBO predictions [4][5]