茶百道(2555.HK)：运营效率环比提升 下半年展店有望提速

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.5 billion CNY in H1 2025, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 37.5% to 326 million CNY, indicating strong financial performance despite a decline in adjusted net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.5 billion CNY, up 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 326 million CNY, up 37.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 340 million CNY, down 13.8%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.6%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points [1] - The company proposed a mid-term dividend of 266 million CNY, translating to 0.18 CNY per share, with a payout ratio of 80% [1] Group 2: Product Innovation and Sales Growth - The company launched 55 new products and upgraded 9 existing products in H1 2025, with popular items like Lychee Ice Milk driving sales [1] - The sales revenue from products, equipment, franchise fees, and other income were 2.309 billion CNY, 48 million CNY, 101 million CNY, and 41 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7.8%, -62.1%, +2.4%, and +52.0% [1] - Estimated single-store product sales revenue was approximately 270,000 CNY, reflecting a 3.7% increase [1] Group 3: Store Expansion and Quality Improvement - The company added 49 new domestic stores in H1 2025, bringing the total to 8,444, focusing on improving operational quality [1] - Store additions in various city tiers included a net decrease of 6 in first-tier cities, an increase of 6 in new first-tier cities, and a net increase of 62 in lower-tier cities [1] - The company also expanded its overseas presence, adding 7 new stores in H1 2025, totaling 21 stores across countries including South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, Hong Kong, Macau, and Spain [1] Group 4: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company improved its gross margin to 32.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year and 1.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio were 6.0%, 10.3%, and 0.6%, with year-on-year changes of +1.6 percentage points, +1.2 percentage points, and flat, respectively [1] - The company achieved a quarter-on-quarter improvement in cost ratios, with sales expenses down by 5.5%, management expenses down by 1.3%, and R&D expenses down by 0.2% [1] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Based on the mid-term performance, the company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 5.747 billion CNY, 6.267 billion CNY, and 6.866 billion CNY, respectively [1] - The net profit forecasts for the same period were adjusted to 872 million CNY, 1.002 billion CNY, and 1.132 billion CNY [1] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 13, 12, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]