美联储降息预期强烈，现货金价强势突破3500美元大关创新高

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold surged past $3500 per ounce, reaching a historic high, driven primarily by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a complex interplay of domestic and international news [1][3]. Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve's internal signals indicate a rising expectation for interest rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell cautiously opening the door for a potential cut in September during the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [3]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller explicitly supported a 25 basis point cut in September and anticipates continued rate cuts in the next 3 to 6 months [3]. - As of September 2, traders estimated an 89.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut, significantly enhancing gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [3]. Economic Data Support - Recent economic data, including a core PCE price index of 2.9% year-on-year for July, supports the expectation of rate cuts, providing the Fed with policy space to act [5]. - The inflation data aligns with market expectations, reinforcing confidence that the Fed will initiate a rate-cutting cycle in September, further bolstering gold's upward trajectory [5]. Political Factors - The dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by former President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [5]. - The political climate has led to increased demand for gold as a refuge, with significant inflows of capital into the gold market driving prices higher [5]. Geopolitical Uncertainty - Global geopolitical uncertainties, such as unresolved issues from the Alaska summit and the ongoing Ukraine crisis, have heightened market volatility and investor risk aversion, further supporting gold's appeal [7]. - Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, project optimistic gold price targets, forecasting prices to reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026 [7]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains strong in the short term, driven by robust expectations for Fed rate cuts and ongoing global uncertainties [7]. - However, potential risks include improved economic data that could diminish rate cut expectations and a possible easing of geopolitical tensions, which may reduce demand for gold as a safe haven [7].