长期美债遭遇严峻挑战，“美联储看跌期权”却不再是万能灵药

Core Viewpoint - The current anxiety in the U.S. capital markets is primarily due to soaring long-term government borrowing rates, making it difficult to stabilize the stock market, and traditional monetary and fiscal tightening may hinder economic growth and worsen tax revenue issues [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The concept of the "Central Bank Put" has been prevalent among stock investors for decades, referring to the Federal Reserve's actions to stimulate the economy and provide a safety net for the stock market [1] - The expectation that the Federal Reserve will intervene to prevent significant market downturns has historically led to excessive risk-taking, as evidenced before the 2007-2008 financial crisis [1][2] - The current market is signaling caution regarding the debt expansion model, particularly in the performance of long-term government bonds [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently growing at over 3%, with ample credit and a very loose financial environment, raising concerns about the potential impact of large-scale monetary easing as requested by the Trump administration [10] - The market anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.5% over the next decade, which could increase risk premiums in the U.S. bond market [10] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rising debt levels are only part of the problem; the real concern is the high inflation rate, which is significantly above target levels, and the perceived political influence on the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation [8][10] - A dual approach is suggested to address the current challenges: pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while restructuring government debt to rely more on short-term bonds [14] - Even if such measures are successfully implemented, they may not alleviate core market concerns regarding sustainable inflation levels, which could continue to exert upward pressure on long-term government bond yields [14]