【百利好指数专题】降息已成定局 美股继续上行

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole conference has significantly increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with U.S. stock indices breaking previous highs from February and setting new historical records [1][3] - Powell indicated that the U.S. job market faces downside risks, which may necessitate a policy adjustment, and announced a new policy framework adopting a "flexible average inflation targeting" approach [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 75.5% to 91.1%, with a 48.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 46.8% chance of a total 50 basis point cut by December [3] Group 2 - President Trump attempted to remove Powell in July and has publicly pressured the Fed to lower rates, contrasting with the Fed's decision to maintain rates steady since January [4] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased volatility in the markets and a rise in 30-year Treasury yields [4] - Analysts suggest that while the increased rate cut expectations are positive for U.S. stocks, political interference and slowing economic data may limit the upside potential for the market [4]