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Where Will Eli Lilly Be in 3 Years?
LillyLilly(US:LLY) The Motley Foolยท2025-09-04 08:25

Core Viewpoint - The weight-loss drug market could approach $100 billion by the end of the decade, with Eli Lilly's weight-loss drugs, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, driving significant revenue growth for the company [1][11]. Group 1: Current Performance - Eli Lilly's stock has increased significantly over the past three years, primarily due to its weight-loss drugs [1]. - Mounjaro and Zepbound have generated billions in sales, with Mounjaro achieving a 68% increase in sales to over $5 billion and Zepbound a 172% increase to over $3 billion in the most recent quarter [5][4]. - The company has seen double-digit revenue growth in four of its products, with Mounjaro experiencing triple-digit growth [4]. Group 2: Future Growth Potential - Eli Lilly has a robust pipeline with over a dozen candidates in phase 3 studies, including orforglipron, an oral weight-loss candidate that could contribute to revenue growth in three years [5][10]. - Orforglipron has shown promising results in trials, with an average weight loss of 12.4% at the highest dose over 72 weeks [7]. - The oral formulation of orforglipron could provide advantages in terms of transportability and convenience, potentially expanding the market reach [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for weight-loss drugs is high, with current injectable options facing shortages, indicating a need for a variety of drug formulations [8]. - Eli Lilly's weight-loss portfolio could position the company as a leader in the market, especially with the potential addition of retatrutide, which is in phase 3 trials and may offer greater efficacy [10][11]. - Goldman Sachs Research predicts the weight-loss drug market will reach $95 billion by 2030, highlighting a significant growth opportunity for Eli Lilly [11].