AvaTrade爱华行情：黄金牛市挡不住 金价再写新高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that gold prices have reached a new historical high due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, a significant drop in U.S. job vacancies, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. - Gold prices have risen for seven consecutive days, with spot gold increasing by 1.07% to $3,570.66 per ounce, and December gold futures rising by 1.15% to $3,634.50 per ounce [1]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and global economic concerns have solidified a three-year bull market in gold [1][3]. Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has strengthened, with the probability of a September cut rising to over 70%, and futures indicating a potential 50 basis point cut [3]. - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for three consecutive years, with a 23% year-on-year increase in gold purchases expected by Q2 2025 [3]. - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with July job vacancies dropping to a 10-month low and non-farm payrolls only increasing by 73,000, leading to heightened uncertainty in the market [3][4]. Group 3 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July hit a nine-month low, while hourly wages increased by 3.9%, indicating persistent inflation [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, with expectations that if job growth is below 80,000, it could trigger a 50 basis point rate cut expectation [4][5]. - Key observations for the non-farm report include private sector employment growth, wage growth, and labor force participation rate, which is currently at its lowest since 2022 at 62.2% [5].