美联储政策转折点？降息进入倒计时！

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, with a potential for multiple cuts over the next three to six months [1][8] - The direction of monetary policy is aimed at moving towards a neutral interest rate, which may require a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points [9][10] - The internal consensus within the Federal Reserve is strengthening, with key figures like Powell and Waller aligning on the need for rate cuts [10] Economic Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with recent data indicating a slowdown in job growth, raising concerns about rising unemployment [5][10] - Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, particularly driven by rising service sector prices, complicating the monetary policy landscape [3][5] - Waller believes that concerns about inflation from tariffs are short-term and expects inflation to return to the target within six to seven months [5] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's approach will be data-dependent, with the pace and magnitude of rate cuts contingent on upcoming economic indicators [8][10] - The overall monetary policy is expected to transition into a relatively accommodative phase in the coming months, prioritizing economic stability over immediate inflation concerns [10]