Cambricon(SH:688256) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-09-04 10:38Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the stock price of Cambricon (688256.SH) reflects a combination of market speculation, company performance, and external factors affecting investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Cambricon's stock price surged from 520.67 yuan on July 10 to 1587.91 yuan by August 28, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's closing price of 1446.10 yuan on the same day [3]. - Following this peak, the stock experienced a decline, dropping 6.01% on August 29, and further falling 5.07% on September 3, culminating in a 14.45% drop on September 4, bringing the market capitalization down from approximately 593.7 billion yuan to 502.9 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Influences - Speculation regarding a supply shortage for Alibaba Cloud's Tongyi Qianwen model led to increased orders for Cambricon's chips, with reports suggesting an order of 150,000 units [3][4]. - However, Alibaba Cloud later denied these procurement rumors, which negatively impacted market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Company Announcements and Financials - On August 28, Cambricon issued a risk warning, stating that its stock price had significantly outpaced its peers and relevant indices, indicating a potential disconnect from its fundamental performance [5]. - The company projected a revenue range of 500 million to 700 million yuan for the full year of 2025, and clarified that there were no new product launches planned [5]. - Cambricon's contract liabilities stood at 543 million yuan as of June 30, 2025, a significant increase from 10,000 yuan at the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong downstream demand [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Cambricon has developed advanced physical design technology under the 7nm process, successfully applied in several core chips, enhancing product performance across various AI applications [6].