高利率压制反弹行情后美股小盘股或分化 盈利型小盘股有望表现更佳

Group 1 - The rebound of small-cap stocks in the U.S. has come to an end due to investor concerns that interest rate cuts may not be sufficient to support heavily indebted companies [1] - The Russell 2000 index saw a 7% increase in August, marking its best monthly performance of the year, but has declined every trading day since entering September [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield potentially breaking 5% has dampened the appeal of small-cap stocks, as it suggests that bond market rates will remain high regardless of Federal Reserve actions [1] Group 2 - Companies in the Russell 2000 index often rely on the high-yield debt market for financing, which is sensitive to changes in borrowing costs [2] - Lower interest rates could support these companies, but the strongest fundamentals are likely to benefit the most [2] - Data shows that since December, whenever the 10-year Treasury yield rises to or above 4.6%, profitable small-cap stocks have outperformed unprofitable ones by an average of 4.6 percentage points [2] Group 3 - Not all unprofitable small-cap stocks are the same; investors are urged to differentiate between those temporarily unprofitable due to growth investments and those with weak business models lacking profitability [3] - If interest rate cuts are imminent, growth-oriented small-cap stocks may emerge as relative winners, while value-oriented small-cap stocks could lag behind [3] - Year-to-date, value stocks in the Russell 2000 have outperformed growth stocks by 2.5% [3]