黄金涨疯了，但多数人已提前下车

Core Insights - Bridgewater's products have achieved a remarkable return of 47% from early 2023 to the end of 2024, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which only rose by 7.3% during the same period [1] - Gold has played a crucial role in Bridgewater's all-weather strategy, contributing significantly to its performance amid rising inflation and low growth [2] Group 1: Bridgewater Fund Performance - Bridgewater's Chinese products have seen substantial returns, with gold contributing at least 21.62% to the fund's performance from mid-2022 to the end of 2023, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 12.51% [4] - The fund's gold holdings reached 14% in its recently listed ETF, serving as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns [4][5] Group 2: Gold Investment Trends - The global demand for gold investment surged, with a 118% year-on-year increase in total investment demand, reaching 1,029 tons in the first half of the year [15] - In China, gold bar and coin sales reached 239 tons, marking the strongest performance since 2013, while gold ETFs saw a significant increase of 86.02 tons [16] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - A growing number of domestic asset management institutions are incorporating gold into their investment strategies, with nearly 45% of FOF products holding gold ETFs [10] - Insurance companies are also beginning to allocate funds to gold, with some private products allocating up to 30% to gold [11][12] Group 4: Market Outlook - UBS has raised its gold price forecast for mid-2026 from $3,500 to $3,700 per ounce, citing lower opportunity costs for holding gold amid U.S. inflation and interest rate expectations [19] - The long-term annualized return of gold over the past 20 years is approximately 10%, influenced by global GDP and wealth growth [8]