美国8月ADP就业增长大幅放缓至5.4万人，强化美联储降息预期

Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity significantly slowed in August, with an increase of 54,000 jobs, well below the expected 68,000 and a decrease from the revised 104,000 in July [1][3] - The report aligns with other indicators showing a cooling labor market, including a reduction in job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth [3][4] - The labor market's weakening trend is further supported by a recent Challenger report indicating the lowest hiring intentions since 2009 and a surge in layoffs [10] Group 2 - Despite the overall slowdown, certain sectors like leisure and hospitality, as well as construction, showed positive employment growth in August [4][8] - Conversely, hiring growth in goods-producing sectors and services experienced a deceleration, with negative job growth reported in manufacturing, transportation, and education [6][7] - Wage growth for job stayers has slowed to its lowest level since June 2021, indicating a potential balance in labor supply and demand, while job changers continue to see rising wages [8] Group 3 - The weak employment data has strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 97% probability priced in unless unexpected strong inflation data emerges [3][10] - The upcoming official employment report is anticipated to show an increase of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, which will be crucial for the Fed's rate decision [10]