日债遇冷？日本加息之途仍坎坷

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with long-term bond yields reaching historical highs due to signals of potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, raising concerns about fiscal deficits and default risks [1][4][8]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - On September 3, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds hit a record high of 3.29%, while the 20-year bond yield reached 2.69%, the highest since 1999 [3]. - The auction of 700 billion yen in 30-year bonds on September 4 saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.31, the lowest since June and below the 12-month average of 3.38 [1]. - The volatility in Japan's bond market is not isolated, as it has implications for global bond markets, with U.S. and U.K. long-term bond yields also rising significantly [1][8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Expectations - Analysts suggest that the rise in long-term bond yields is primarily due to expectations of fiscal policy tightening and concerns over accumulating debt risks [4][9]. - Japan's economy has shown resilience, with positive growth driven by non-manufacturing sectors, particularly infrastructure [4]. - Despite the positive economic indicators, the Japanese government faces challenges with increasing trade deficits and a declining real wage trend, which could impact consumer spending [11][12]. Group 3: Central Bank Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates since January, and the persistent inflationary pressures are contributing to the high bond yields [4][5]. - Following the hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, the stock market and currency experienced fluctuations, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 0.88% on September 3 but rebounding by 1.53% the next day [6][7]. - The market's reaction to the interest rate signals indicates a complex interplay between economic recovery expectations and the potential for increased borrowing costs [7][10].