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国际货币基金组织执行董事会完成与波黑的2025年《国际货币基金组织协定》第四条磋商
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan·2025-09-04 13:57

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite facing severe external conditions, Bosnia's economic growth remains resilient, with a projected acceleration to 2.5% in 2024 and a return to a potential level of 3% by 2027 [1] - The report highlights that consumption levels were suppressed in the first quarter due to political uncertainty, but high-frequency indicators show a recovery in consumption starting from the second quarter [1] - Overall inflation is expected to rapidly decline to 1.7% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023, before rising to 2.3% in May 2025, with core inflation stabilizing around 4% [1] Group 2 - The report identifies several downward risks to Bosnia's economic outlook, including trade uncertainties, a slowdown in the European economy, commodity price volatility, tightening global financial conditions, and escalating political tensions [2] - It emphasizes the need for Bosnia's fiscal policy to focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffer space, and improving the quality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda [2] - The report suggests that Bosnia should promptly implement priority actions for anti-money laundering organizations to avoid being placed on a gray list, which could hinder its ability to gain further growth benefits [2]