5.4万人！8月“小非农”疲软，降息预期再强化

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector job growth in August fell short of expectations, with an increase of 54,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 65,000 [1][5] - The ADP report indicates a cooling labor market, with various factors contributing to the slowdown in hiring, including labor shortages and consumer concerns [3][10] Employment Data - The August ADP report showed a revision of the previous month's job growth from 104,000 to 106,000 [1] - Job losses were particularly noted in the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors, which saw a net loss of 17,000 jobs, and the education and health services sector, which lost 12,000 jobs [3] - Conversely, the leisure and hospitality sector added 50,000 jobs in August, partially offsetting the losses in other sectors [3] Wage Growth - Wage growth remained stable in August, with wages for employed individuals increasing by 4.4% year-over-year, while those who changed jobs saw a 7.1% increase [4] Unemployment Claims - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week, exceeding market expectations [5] Job Openings - The JOLTS report indicated that job openings in July fell to one of the lowest levels since 2020, reflecting a tightening labor market [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The ADP report has intensified concerns regarding the labor market, leading traders to increase bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - Market expectations for a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting have risen to 97.4%, up from 96.6% the previous day [11]