央行国债买卖操作重启升温 货币财政政策协同有望升级

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has paused its government bond trading operations since January 2025, leading to market speculation about when these operations will resume, especially after a significant liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan through net bond purchases from August to December 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the announcement of the joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC, the bond futures market reacted positively, with significant increases in various contract maturities [1]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment is more suitable for the resumption of bond purchases compared to the previous year, indicating a gradual increase in the probability of resumption [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Coordination - The PBOC's bond trading operations are primarily aimed at liquidity management, and the recent discussions emphasize the need for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [6][7]. - The joint working group aims to enhance cooperation between fiscal and monetary policies, which is crucial for addressing the current complex market conditions and promoting economic recovery [8][9]. Group 3: Future Projections and Impacts - Analysts predict that the resumption of bond trading operations could occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, coinciding with significant economic data releases and government meetings [4][10]. - The anticipated resumption of operations may restore the balance of 1 trillion yuan, with short-term bonds likely becoming the primary focus of these operations [4][10]. - The emphasis on liquidity management through bond trading is expected to stabilize the bond market and mitigate the impact of government bond supply on liquidity [10][11].