Ge Long Hui·2025-09-04 19:09Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's performance is under short-term pressure, with cautious guidance for Q3 deliveries due to intensified market competition [1] Group 1: Q2 Performance Summary - Q2 sales reached 111,000 units, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 2% and 20% respectively [1] - Revenue for Q2 was 30.25 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [1] - Q2 gross margin was 20.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.5 percentage points [1] - Automotive gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced average sales costs, while it slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - R&D and sales expenses for Q2 were 2.8 billion and 2.7 billion RMB respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease and a quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.09 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68% [1] - Net profit margin was 3.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1 percentage points [1] Group 2: Q3 Outlook - For Q3, the company expects deliveries to be between 90,000 and 95,000 units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% to 37.8% [1] - Revenue for Q3 is projected to be between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% to 38.8% [1] - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin around 19% for Q3 [1] Group 3: New Product Launches and Innovations - Li Auto launched the i8 on July 29, with deliveries starting on August 20, aiming for 8,000 to 10,000 units by the end of September [2] - The upcoming i6, a five-seat pure electric SUV, is expected to achieve stable monthly sales of 9,000 to 10,000 units [2] - The Li MEGA MPV continues to see rising sales, with over 3,000 units delivered in August, making it a leader in the luxury MPV and pure electric vehicle segments in China [2] - The VLA model will undergo a full rollout on September 10, featuring five major upgrades for enhanced driving experience [2] Group 4: Strategic Expansion and R&D - The company has outlined a three-phase development strategy, with 2023 marking the start of its global expansion [3] - Li Auto has established R&D centers in Germany and the U.S. and is building overseas sales and service networks [3] - The self-developed chip is currently undergoing road testing, with expectations for it to be featured in flagship models by 2026 [3] - The company is optimistic about the integration of smart driving software and hardware, which is expected to enhance user experience at lower costs [3] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to competitive pressures, projecting sales of approximately 420,000, 600,000, and 730,000 units from 2025 to 2027 [4] - Total revenue is expected to reach 116.8 billion, 159.1 billion, and 200.4 billion RMB for the same years [4] - GAAP net profit is projected at 4.7 billion, 8.7 billion, and 12 billion RMB, with corresponding net profit margins of 4.0%, 5.4%, and 6.0% [4] - The target market capitalization is set at 217.6 billion RMB, with target prices of approximately 111 HKD and 28 USD for respective listings [4]