2025年是抓紧卖房，还是咬牙买房？曹德旺建议没错：方向很明确

Core Viewpoint - Despite favorable policies and reduced mortgage rates, the Chinese real estate market continues to experience a downward trend in prices, raising concerns about oversupply and the long-term viability of property investments [1][2][3] Policy Environment - In May 2025, the central bank announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in loan rates, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [2] - The housing provident fund loan rate has dropped to a historical low of 2.6%, down from 3.1% in 2023, significantly reducing monthly payments for homebuyers [2] - The down payment for second homes has been lowered from 25% to 15%, aligning it with first-home purchases, which could save buyers substantial amounts [2] Market Response - Despite policy incentives, only 24 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices increase in January 2025, indicating persistent downward pressure on the market [3] - Over the past three years, cities like Zhengzhou and Tianjin have seen home prices drop by as much as 30%, with some areas around Beijing experiencing declines exceeding 50% [5] Demographic Changes - The birth rate in China fell to 9.02 million in 2024, while the elderly population reached 290 million by the end of 2023, indicating a shrinking demand for new homes [7][14] - Young people's preferences are shifting towards experiences rather than homeownership, leading to a more active rental market in major cities [7][14] Investment Trends - The golden era of real estate investment is over, with average home prices rising from 2,000 yuan/sqm in 2000 to 11,000 yuan/sqm in 2021, a 5.5-fold increase [8] - The current market is transitioning from speculation to a focus on housing as a necessity, with government policies aimed at stabilizing the market rather than inflating prices [8][13] Financial Environment - Real estate investment accounted for less than 20% of fixed asset investment in the first half of 2025, marking a historical low [10] - Local governments are increasingly reliant on non-land revenue sources, with land sale income dropping from 870 billion yuan in 2021 to 320 billion yuan in 2024, reducing the incentive to inflate land prices [11] Corporate Challenges - Major real estate companies like Evergrande and Sunac are facing severe financial difficulties, with sales for even top firms like Vanke dropping over 40% from peak levels [13][17] - The market is characterized by a "three no's" state: developers are hesitant to acquire land, banks are reluctant to lend, and buyers are cautious about purchasing [13] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to undergo a long-term adjustment, with a focus on deleveraging and returning to rational investment practices [21][22] - The shift in consumer behavior towards renting and the increasing costs associated with property ownership suggest a fundamental change in the market dynamics [9][14]