美债收益率再度飙升的长短期因素

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to a combination of short-term triggers, such as a court ruling against the government's tariff policies, and long-term structural issues related to the deteriorating fiscal situation of the U.S. government [1][2][3]. Group 1: Short-term Triggers - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 4.293% and the 30-year yield soared to 4.988% after a court ruling deemed most of the global tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration illegal [1]. - The ruling allows the tariffs to remain in place until October 14, giving the government time to appeal, which may lead to increased bond issuance due to the growing fiscal deficit [1]. Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Issues - The total U.S. federal debt stands at $36.21 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the IMF's warning threshold of 90% [2]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the government is projected to have a deficit of $1.9 trillion, with interest payments on the debt reaching $882 billion, a 155.65% increase from fiscal year 2020 [2]. - The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has led to a significant reduction in corporate tax revenue, contributing to the fiscal imbalance [2]. Group 3: Structural Factors - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries has increased, particularly in the long-term segment, with an estimated net issuance of $590 billion in the fourth quarter, of which $447 billion is long-term debt [4]. - Demand for U.S. Treasuries is weak, primarily supported by foreign central banks and domestic financial institutions, leading to a mismatch in the supply and demand dynamics [4]. - The Federal Reserve's stance is shifting under political pressure, with an increasing number of committee members open to the idea of interest rate cuts, which could further impact Treasury yields [4][5].