Group 1 - The alumina market experienced significant adjustments in the first half of the year, with prices declining from a peak of 5540 yuan/ton to a low of 2663 yuan/ton, maintaining a wide fluctuation between 2700 and 3600 yuan/ton after May [1] - The cyclical logic behind the price movements includes industry profit contraction, active production cuts, price rebounds, resumption of production, and price declines back to cost levels [1] - In the fourth quarter, alumina is expected to continue its wide fluctuation pattern, with cost support remaining due to the slow decline in bauxite prices, but upward price movement requires substantial supply-side disruptions [1] Group 2 - As of the end of August, domestic alumina operating capacity was approximately 95 million tons, with a peak close to 96 million tons, and about 1.6 million tons of capacity expected to resume following maintenance [1] - Demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable, but growth is limited due to capacity constraints, while non-aluminum demand shows seasonal characteristics and overall demand growth is far behind supply [1] - By 2025, the domestic alumina market is projected to have a surplus of approximately 2% or 2 million tons [1] Group 3 - In the overseas market, projects in India and Indonesia are ramping up, leading to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the overseas supply landscape since the third quarter [2] - By 2025, the overseas alumina surplus is expected to be around 160 million tons, with a surplus rate of 2.7% [2] - Overall, the global alumina supply shifted from a slight shortage to a surplus in the third quarter, with significant surplus pressures expected in both domestic and overseas markets in the second half of the year [2] Group 4 - Guinea bauxite shipments have shown fluctuations due to the rainy season but remain at high levels year-on-year, with expectations of overall surplus in bauxite supply [2] - The CIF price of Guinea bauxite is projected at $74.5/ton, with marginal cash costs for domestic alumina production estimated between 2850 and 2950 yuan/ton, and total costs between 3070 and 3170 yuan/ton, indicating a neutral profit level for the industry [2] Group 5 - In the short term, without supply disruptions, alumina prices may remain in a bottoming phase, with current prices near the cash loss threshold for smelting [3] - The price support level is expected around 2900 to 3000 yuan/ton, with an anticipated price fluctuation range of 2900 to 3300 yuan/ton [3] - Despite significant supply surplus pressures, seasonal production limits and policy disruptions in the fourth quarter may lead to a temporary price rebound, with potential peaks around 3500 yuan/ton [3]
氧化铝短期或继续磨底
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-04 23:29