今晚疲软非农报告或锁定降息，劳动力市场“冻结”令美联储承压

Group 1 - The upcoming employment report is expected to show the weakest job growth in the U.S. since the pandemic, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][5] - Economists predict a non-farm payroll increase of only 75,000 jobs in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of job growth below 100,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Recent months have seen a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth due to companies facing demand concerns, rising costs, and economic uncertainty stemming from trade policies [2][3] - The labor market is described as being in a "frozen" state, with businesses pausing hiring decisions until the economic situation becomes clearer [3] - Job growth in August is expected to be concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare, leisure, and hospitality [3] Group 3 - The July employment report indicated a downward revision of job growth, altering perceptions of the labor market among economists and policymakers [4] - There are concerns about the integrity of U.S. employment data following significant revisions, which may suggest a more prolonged weakness in the labor market [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to act as labor market conditions weaken, with Chairman Powell expressing openness to interest rate cuts [5][6] - Other indicators, such as a drop in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment claims, further complicate the outlook for the labor market [5] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, although future actions remain uncertain [5] Group 5 - The dual mandate of achieving full employment and stable prices is creating a challenging environment for policymakers, with potential disagreements among Federal Open Market Committee members [6] - The labor market is expected to be a key factor in interest rate decisions in the coming months, with a potential for rapid changes [6]