wanhua(SH:600309) Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-09-05 01:31Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week (2025/08/25-2025/08/29) with a fluctuation of 1.11%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index saw a fluctuation of 7.74%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 6.63 percentage points [1][2]. Key Industry Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that utilize green energy alternatives and scale advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [2]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will see accelerated reductions. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with a high quota share in refrigerants are likely to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand gap. Relevant companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [3][4]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core aspect of domestic industrial chain localization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, leading to a mismatch between the demand for high-end electronic specialty gases and the insufficient domestic production capacity. Companies that can establish high-end production capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are expected to gain a competitive edge. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [4][5]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals are also aligned with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. The leading companies in this sector are expected to see their valuations reassessed positively [5]. COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of research. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic production has heightened the urgency for local alternatives. The market for COC/COP remains constrained by supply-side bottlenecks, but domestic companies are poised to break through and expand market opportunities. Notable companies include Akerley [6]. MDI Market Dynamics - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with demand remaining stable due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among eight manufacturers, with five major companies accounting for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, and the supply landscape is likely to improve as demand recovers. Key companies to monitor include Wanhua Chemical [9]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (11.08%), bisphenol A (2.99%), PX (2.86%), refrigerant R32 (2.56%), and butadiene (2.08%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-25.86%), urea (-3.45%), TDI (-3.33%), toluene (-3.18%), and pure benzene (-2.70%) [10]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 153 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with six new maintenance activities and four restarts noted [11].