美联储褐皮书：美国经济出现多重隐忧_发现频道_中国青年网

Economic Overview - The recent Beige Book indicates that the growth rate of the U.S. economy is below average, with little sign of acceleration [1] - Most Federal Reserve districts reported minimal economic activity, with only four regions noting moderate growth [1] Price and Cost Pressures - Tariff policies are causing rising costs across multiple industries, with ten districts reporting moderate price increases and two districts experiencing significant rises in input prices [1] - Many regions noted that tariffs have notably impacted input prices, leading to increased prices for consumers [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending has remained flat or declined due to rising prices outpacing wage growth, particularly in essential expenses like insurance and utilities [1] Industry Insights - The retail and hospitality sectors are offering promotions to attract price-sensitive consumers, but this has not offset the decline in international tourist demand [2] - The automotive industry has seen stable to slight increases in sales, with a growing demand for services related to maintaining older vehicles [2] - Manufacturing companies are shifting towards local supply chains and automation to manage costs amid tariff impacts [2] Labor Market Conditions - Employment levels have shown little change across 11 districts, with one district reporting a slight decline [2] - Uncertainty and weak demand have led to hesitance in hiring, with reports of increased layoffs in two districts and a noted decrease in immigrant labor affecting recruitment [2] Economic Outlook - Concerns about a potential economic recession are rising, with UBS estimating a 93% probability of economic weakness based on actual data [3] - Moody's chief economist has also warned that the U.S. is on the brink of recession, echoing similar concerns [3]