金荣中国：美就业市场疲软预期持续发酵，金价高位企稳维持多头趋势

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,552.80 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,578.36 and a low of $3,511.41 [1] Employment Data - The U.S. ADP employment numbers for August recorded an increase of 54,000, falling short of the market expectation of 65,000 and down from the previous value of 104,000 [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 reached 237,000, exceeding the market expectation of 230,000 and up from the prior value of 229,000 [2] - The Challenger Gray report indicated that retailers announced layoffs of 83,656 in August, a 242% increase compared to the same month last year [2] Job Market Trends - U.S. companies announced only 1,494 new jobs in August, marking the lowest level for that month since 2009 [3] - The number of layoffs announced reached 85,980, the highest for August since 2020, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August was recorded at 52, surpassing the market expectation of 50.1 [3] Economic Indicators - The services PMI data showed strength due to increased business activity and new orders, although employment indices continued to decline [5] - Despite a strong services PMI, concerns about future economic growth and inflation persist, influenced by import tariffs [6] Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams indicated that interest rate cuts may become appropriate over time, balancing employment and inflation risks [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Fed's credibility is compromised, gold prices could rise to nearly $5,000 per ounce, recommending long-term investment in gold as a hedge [7] Gold Market Dynamics - The World Gold Council reported that gold prices surged to $3,429 per ounce by the end of August, with a monthly increase of 4% and a year-to-date rise of 31% [8] - Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.5 billion in August, primarily from North America and Europe, while Asia experienced outflows [8] ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a decrease in holdings by 2.29 tons, bringing the total to 981.97 tons [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include Canada's employment numbers and U.S. unemployment rate for August, along with non-farm payroll data [11][12]