黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.9.5）

Fundamental Analysis - The core reason for the recent decline in gold prices is profit-taking, as traders cash in on gains after a strong rally, leading to a short-term price drop [2] - Employment data has created a cautious sentiment among investors. The recent weak job vacancy data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which should be positive for gold. However, the initial jobless claims of 237,000 (above the expected 230,000) and the ADP employment data of 54,000 (below the expected 65,000) indicate a cooling labor market, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach before the non-farm payroll report [3] - The short-term rebound of the US dollar is putting pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index rising by 0.16% to 98.28. A stronger dollar reduces gold's appeal to holders of non-dollar currencies. However, declining bond yields support gold's long-term attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [4] - The market is highly sensitive to upcoming non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 75,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. Weak data could reinforce the Fed's rate cut path and boost gold demand, while strong data may strengthen the dollar and increase downward pressure on gold prices [5][6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop but managed to recover most of its losses, finding support at the 5-day moving average. The short-term bullish trend remains intact, with key support at around 3530. If prices hold above this level, a bullish outlook is maintained [10] - In the four-hour chart, the analysis suggests monitoring the upward momentum and potential adjustments. If gold fails to break above the recent high of 3578 and instead drops below 3511, it may indicate a shift to a corrective phase. Key support levels to watch are 3476, 3445/3444, and 3413, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement levels [10]