机构预计未来居民“存款搬家”将持续，券商ETF（159842）份额创历史新高，首创证券涨超2%

Group 1 - The market showed mixed performance on September 5, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.42% [1] - The broker ETF (159842) experienced a decline of 0.85% with a trading volume exceeding 23 million yuan, indicating active trading and a premium trading occurrence [1] - In terms of fund flow, the broker ETF (159842) saw net inflows in 8 out of the last 10 days, accumulating over 1.38 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The wealth management business of brokerages is showing positive growth due to increased market trading activity, with 42 A-share listed brokerages reporting a total brokerage income of 74.545 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 50.69% [2] - The wealth management business exhibited four key characteristics: intensified "Matthew effect," traditional trading business dominance, increased market attractiveness leading to new account openings, and deepening transformation of buyer advisory services [2] - The capital market's total market value to household deposits ratio remains low at 0.59 as of July 2025, indicating potential for continued "deposit migration" from residents into the stock market [2] Group 3 - As of June 30, the total financial investment scale of 42 brokerages reached 6.75 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.28% increase since the beginning of the year, with trading financial assets growing by 14.43% to 4.76 trillion yuan [3] - The brokerages are gradually increasing their equity OCI asset scale, supported by a low interest rate environment and improved market sentiment, which is expected to provide stable support for performance growth in the second half of the year [3]