国海证券：供需趋紧叠加战略属性强化 首予钨行业“推荐”评级

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tungsten industry is expected to undergo a systematic re-evaluation due to strengthened regulations, declining resource grades, and geopolitical factors, leading to limited future supply growth [1][3] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has reduced the first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 to 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 and 5,000 tons compared to 2024 and 2023 respectively, indicating a clear tightening of mining regulations [1] - China's tungsten ore grade has declined from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2020, which has significantly limited the release of production capacity due to long-term high-intensity mining [1] Group 2 - The downstream applications of tungsten are expanding, with a projected consumption of 55,300 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, driven by manufacturing upgrades and high demand in mining and machinery sectors [2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost the demand for tungsten materials in tooling and mining equipment [2] Group 3 - Export controls on tungsten and the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. are reshaping the industry landscape, with China implementing export restrictions on various tungsten products to promote domestic industrial upgrades [3] - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain tungsten products imported from China, aimed at weakening China's influence in critical metals and enhancing the self-sufficiency of strategic industries [3]