Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, believes the U.S. is in a dangerous "fifth stage" of a major debt cycle that began in 1945, indicating a potential for significant conflict and transformation [1][4][6]. Economic Conditions - Dalio warns that the U.S. government's debt supply and demand situation is deteriorating like cancer, despite appearances of economic stability [3][4]. - The U.S. government currently spends approximately $7 trillion annually, with revenues around $5 trillion, resulting in a deficit of about 40% [6][7]. Warning Signals - Two major warning signs for the U.S. economy include the implementation of a new round of quantitative easing and the government gaining control over the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - Dalio predicts that if these signs manifest, it would indicate significant risks to the actual value of U.S. currency and debt [3][4]. Stages of National Cycles - Dalio outlines six stages of national internal cycles, with the current U.S. situation in the fifth stage characterized by worsening fiscal conditions and potential class conflict [4][5]. - The final stage could lead to severe turmoil, including revolution or civil war [4][5]. Key Forces Influencing Debt Cycles - Five interconnected forces drive the changes in debt cycles: monetary/economic forces, domestic political/social forces, international geopolitical forces, natural forces (e.g., climate events), and human learning/technological advancement [5][6]. - The interplay of these forces contributes to the transition from "old order" to "new order," alternating between peace and conflict [5][6]. Recommendations for Reducing Bankruptcy Risk - To mitigate bankruptcy risk, Dalio suggests reducing the budget deficit to around 3% of GDP, as the current deficit is approximately 6.4% of GDP for the 2024 fiscal year [7][6]. - Achieving this requires adjustments in spending, taxation, and debt interest rates, rather than relying on just one or two factors [7][6]. Observations on China - Dalio highlights China's remarkable achievements over the past 40 years, including a 20-fold increase in per capita income and a significant reduction in poverty [8][9]. - He emphasizes the importance of education, a conducive domestic environment for productivity, and avoiding external conflicts for China's continued strength [9][16]. Technological Competition - The U.S. and China are engaged in a technological competition across various fields, including AI and biotechnology, which will shape future global dynamics [9][10]. - Dalio believes that the next 5 to 10 years will see significant changes in major global orders, driven by technological advancements [9][10]. Impact of AI on Debt Crisis - While AI has the potential to enhance decision-making and drive progress, Dalio expresses skepticism about its ability to delay the next global debt crisis, citing historical patterns of technology facing significant challenges [10][17]. - He notes that revolutionary technologies often encounter heavy debt burdens and political conflicts that can overshadow their benefits [10][17].
环球时报专访瑞·达利欧
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-05 02:13