Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-05 02:16Group 1 - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Lingbao Gold increasing by 6.32% to HKD 16.33, China Gold International up by 3.71% to HKD 120.2, Zhaojin Mining up by 3.7% to HKD 28.04, and Zijin Mining up by 3.07% to HKD 27.5 [1] - The ADP report indicated that U.S. employment increased by 54,000 in August, which was below market expectations, while initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were 237,000, exceeding expectations [1] - The cooling labor market in the U.S. has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with market pricing showing a 97.4% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Federal Reserve's credibility is damaged, gold prices could rise to nearly USD 5,000 per ounce, recommending long-term investment in gold as a hedge against value loss [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that since late April, gold has been in a volatile market due to factors such as tariff impacts, U.S. fiscal policy, geopolitical issues, and central bank gold purchases, creating a complex balance of bullish and bearish forces [2] - Changes in these factors may open an upward trend for gold prices, with expectations of improved tariff conditions and the potential onset of stagflation effects [2] - The likelihood of decreased geopolitical risks within the year is low, and the Federal Reserve may initiate early rate cuts, while global central bank gold purchasing trends remain stable [2] - Under a neutral scenario, CITIC's model predicts that gold prices could exceed USD 3,730 per ounce by the end of the year [2]